A recent Multifamily NW biannual Apartment Report paints a complex picture for Oregon’s multifamily housing market, showing rising rents despite slightly higher vacancies and a constrained construction pipeline. The survey, which analyzed 460 properties totaling 42,000 units statewide, found that average rents increased 3 percent over the past year, reaching $2.11 per square foot. Meanwhile, the Portland-Vancouver metro vacancy rate rose to 5.47 percent, up from 4.49 percent in 2024.
Multifamily brokers view the report’s findings with cautious optimism. Greg Frick, co-founder of HFO Investment Real Estate and a member of the report’s advisory committee, noted that the market may have “hit a bottom for valuation.” He said investment activity is picking up, with buyers adjusting expectations to more realistic pricing while sellers have slightly lowered their demands.
The Portland metro area recorded 93 multifamily transactions in the first nine months of 2025, up from 80 during the same period last year. Dollar volume surged 55.3 percent to $1.53 billion, while capitalization rates remained steady around 6 percent. These figures suggest continued investor interest, even as supply constraints temper growth.
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Construction activity remains limited, with only 2,000 new units under construction this fall, marking the lowest pipeline for the Portland metro area since 2011. Analysts warn that while this shortage will help maintain rent growth, it does little to ease the region’s ongoing housing deficit, leaving affordability challenges unresolved.
The Multifamily NW report was unveiled at an event hosted at the Oregon Convention Center, featuring perspectives that ranged from cautiously optimistic to starkly sobering. In his keynote, Portland Mayor Keith Wilson highlighted examples of what he called “boom loop” thinking to stimulate the city’s economic revival. Projects such as development near the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry district, the Broadway Corridor, and the James Beard Public Market were cited as catalysts for growth. Wilson also noted a 5 percent increase in hotel occupancy from 2024, signaling a rebound in tourism.
To support housing development, Wilson emphasized city initiatives including waiving system development charges for three years, expanding video permit inspections, and eliminating bureaucratic hurdles, asserting: “We will not hold up your dreams in Portland.” He stressed a vision for revitalizing blighted neighborhoods, including areas of Old Town-Chinatown and Southeast Portland’s Water Avenue.
However, the upbeat tone contrasted sharply with the economic reality presented by Mike Wilkerson, director of economic research at ECOnorthwest. Wilkerson noted that Oregon and Washington are effectively in a recession, with the state losing 18,300 jobs in the past year, primarily in Multnomah County. Portland is one of only five major U.S. metro areas experiencing job losses.
Population trends also raise concerns. Wilkerson warned that both Oregon and the U.S. could see declining populations unless immigration policies are adjusted. Nationally, Moody’s Analytics has estimated a 48 percent probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months. Despite well-funded affordable housing initiatives, the share of cost-burdened renters in the Portland area has remained stagnant over the past decade, reflecting persistent affordability challenges.
Industry voices emphasize the need for Portland to increase job opportunities, housing availability, and overall economic competitiveness. Frick concluded, “As a region, we rest on our laurels a little bit — that people will come no matter what. I think that’s changed.”
In summary, Oregon’s multifamily market is experiencing rent growth amid higher vacancies and limited supply, signaling opportunities for investors but ongoing challenges for affordability. With constrained construction pipelines, job losses, and stagnant affordability metrics, stakeholders agree that bold strategies are needed to sustain Portland’s housing market and broader economic health.
